ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 PM AST Mon Aug 21 2023
 
Gert continues to be sustained by a very small but persistent area
of convection east of its surface wind center. ASCAT data that came
in 5 minutes after the release of the previous advisory showed peak
winds of just above 25 kt well to the north of Gert's center. South
of Gert is mostly light and variable winds. Assuming Gert has
weakened further a little since then, its intensity has been lowered
to 25 kt.
 
All models continue to suggest that Gert will struggle in the face 
of strong upper-level winds and a very dry surrounding environment. 
The small tropical depression will likely either lose organized deep 
convection and become a remnant low or dissipate at almost any time. 
There is a chance that Gert could persist as a remnant low beyond 
the 24 h shown in the NHC forecast, but it is unlikely that Gert 
will have sufficient organized deep convection to be classified as a 
tropical cyclone in that case. Gert is moving west-northwestward, 
but the depression or its remnants should turn more northwestward 
by tomorrow. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or 
intensity forecasts with this advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 17.1N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.6N  58.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1800Z 18.5N  59.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
NNNN