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BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022
 
...ROSLYN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 106.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning north
of El Roblito to Mazatlan.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.1 West.  Roslyn is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to
the southwestern coast of Mexico through midday today, then
approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall
along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Roslyn is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is
forecast today.  Although some weakening is possible beginning
tonight, Roslyn is expected to still be near or at major hurricane
strength when it makes landfall on Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday.  Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
 
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the
warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:
 
Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches
 
Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches
 
Southern Durango into western Zacatecas:  1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches
 
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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