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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022
 
...DEPRESSION CRAWLING WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING 
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF 
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 101.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.  Watches could be 
required for portions of the coast later today.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 101.5
West.  The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn 
toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected Friday and 
Friday night, followed by a northward motion by Saturday night.  On 
the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the 
southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or 
over the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days.  The depression 
is expected to become a tropical storm later today and then become 
a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's outer rainbands may 
produce heavy rainfall of 1 to 4 inches along coastal areas of 
Guerrero and Michoacan. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding 
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

The system is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend 
and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Jalisco, 
Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This 
rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of 
rugged terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the
coast of west-central Mexico by Friday.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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