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Hurricane ROSLYN


ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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