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TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
0300 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND THE ISLAS MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR 
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.7N 105.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.9N 106.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.4N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 103.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
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