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Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022
Roslyn is nearing west-central Mexico this morning, with a cloud
pattern that is becoming a little less organized with a more
obscured eye. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
provided valuable data this evening, despite severe turbulence,
showing that the hurricane hasn't lost much strength, with
flight-level and SFMR winds both supporting a current intensity of
110 kt. This intensity also matches a slightly higher central
pressure of about 958 mb, up just a few mb since the last
reconnaissance mission.
Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery show that Roslyn has
turned to the north-northeast and is moving faster, at about 14 kt.
The hurricane should continue to accelerate and make landfall in
the next several hours, likely in northern Nayarit, similar to the
track models. There isn't much time left for any increase in shear
to affect Roslyn, and the hurricane is expected to make landfall
at about its current strength. Rapid weakening will occur over the
mountainous terrain of western Mexico later this morning, and Roslyn
should lose its circulation this evening. No significant changes
were made to the previous forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Roslyn is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
along the west-central coast of Mexico within the next several
hours, accompanied by damaging winds and a life-threatening storm
surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion.
2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 21.1N 106.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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