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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022
The circulation associated with the cyclone does not appear to have
tightened up yet, and the center is estimated to be located between
two primary clusters of deep convection. Dvorak classifications
are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and the objective
ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is just below tropical storm intensity.
Therefore, the system remains a depression with maximum winds
estimated to be 30 kt.
TAFB and SAB center fixes suggest the depression isn't moving very
fast. The initial motion is westward, or 275/3 kt, with the system
just beginning to move along the southern edge of a mid-tropospheric
high centered near the mouth of the Gulf of California. This high
is expected to slide eastward across Mexico during the next 3 days,
while a deep-layer area of low pressure moves very little well to
the west of the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone should
slowly recurve around the western periphery of the high, eventually
moving northward near the west-central coast of Mexico by Saturday
night and then accelerating north-northeastward over Mexico on
Sunday. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models
for this forecast, with most of the discrepancies related to how
wide and fast a turn the cyclone makes while recurving around the
high. The NHC official forecast favors a more intense cyclone that
makes a tighter, faster turn, and it lies closest to the solutions
of the GFS, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA consensus aid. This forecast
essentially lies on top of the previous NHC prediction.
An environment of negligible deep-layer shear, very warm ocean
temperatures, and sufficient atmospheric moisture should support
steady strengthening in the coming days. The cyclone's peak
intensity will likely be dictated by exactly how long the system
will be over water before reaching land, and it could also be
modulated by some increase in shear in about 3 days. For
continuity's sake, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged
from the previous prediction, and it most closely follows the HCCA
intensity solution, which is near the upper end of the guidance
envelope. After the system moves inland, rapid weakening is
expected, and the low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by early Monday. Global
model fields indicate that the mid-level remnants will continue
northeastward across northern Mexico on Monday.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes
near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and
Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous
storm surge. Interests along the coast of southwestern and
west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this
system, and hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required
for portions of this coastline later today.
2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern
Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 15.1N 101.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.3N 102.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.6N 103.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.1N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 16.8N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 19.4N 106.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 23.4N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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