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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022
The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC
has been monitoring for the past several days has improved today,
and earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the circulation
was becoming better defined. Since then, deep convection has
significantly increased near the low-level center, with signs of
curved banding over the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Based on these developments, the system now meets the
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated
on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The initial intensity is set at
30 kt based on a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 00 UTC.
The center position is somewhat uncertain given that the system just
formed, and the estimated initial motion is west-northwestward at
285/4 kt. This general motion should continue for the next couple of
days as the cyclone moves roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico. The mid-level steering ridge over northern
Mexico is forecast to slide eastward later this week, while a
deep-layer trough amplifies over the eastern Pacific and moves
slowly toward the Baja California peninsula. The flow between these
two features should induce a turn toward the north or
north-northeast over the weekend, bringing the center of the system
toward the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico on Sunday.
Overall, the track guidance is in very good agreement through 72 h,
with larger spread noted by 96 h while the system turns toward the
coast of Mexico. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the
guidance envelope, generally remaining close to the TVCE aid.
The forecast track brings the system over some of the warmest SSTs
in the eastern Pacific basin during the next couple of days. Also,
the system will be moving within a moist and unstable environment,
and the deep-layer shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt during
this time. Given these favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions,
the NHC forecast calls for steady to near rapid strengthening during
the next few days. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by
late Friday, with additional strengthening expected thereafter while
it approaches the coast. The NHC forecast generally follows the IVCN
multi-model consensus aid and lies just below HCCA. After moving
inland by 96 h, interaction with the topography of western Mexico
should cause quick weakening and dissipation of the low-level
circulation by 120 h.
Interests along the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico
should closely monitor the progress of this system, as watches could
be required for portions of the coastline later tomorrow or tomorrow
night.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 15.2N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.6N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 16.6N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 17.6N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 18.9N 106.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.5N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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