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Tropical Depression Julia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022
Microwave and surface observations indicate the center of Julia went
inland just before 1200 UTC about 35 miles west of San Salvador.
Deep convection has weakened somewhat over the center since that
time, and the whole circulation is becoming stretched by the
mountainous terrain. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt,
assuming some spin down of the winds from friction.
Julia should dissipate by this evening while it continues moving
west-northwestward over southern Guatemala. No significant changes
were made to the previous forecast. Regardless, heavy rainfall is
likely to continue over portions of Central America through today
and southern Mexico through tomorrow.
Some of the residual moisture and vorticity associated with Julia
could become absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the
west, associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.
For information on the potential for new development offshore of
southern Mexico later this week, please see the latest eastern North
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook.
1. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 14.1N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW