ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Paine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Organized deep convection has been absent from Paine for the past 12 hours, but a couple of small bursts of convection have pulsed over the past few hours. Therefore, it is prudent to wait to see if that convection increases through this morning's diurnal maximum before declaring the system post-tropical. Given the expected increase in westerly shear and dry mid-level environment it is unlikely the convection will persist or gain any organization. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Continued weakening is expected due to the aforementioned unfavorable conditions and Paine should become a remnant low this afternoon, and the circulation is foreast to become an open trough within 48 hours. Paine is moving northwestward or 305/4 kt. The cyclone's motion should bend toward the west-northwest and west over the next 24 to 36 hours as it becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. No significant changes were required to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.4N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z 18.8N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:23 UTC