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Tropical Depression Paine Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022
 
Organized deep convection has been absent from Paine for the past 
12 hours, but a couple of small bursts of convection have pulsed 
over the past few hours.  Therefore, it is prudent to wait to see 
if that convection increases through this morning's diurnal maximum 
before declaring the system post-tropical.  Given the expected 
increase in westerly shear and dry mid-level environment it is 
unlikely the convection will persist or gain any organization.  The 
initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, in agreement with the 
latest TAFB Dvorak classification.  Continued weakening is 
expected due to the aforementioned unfavorable conditions and Paine 
should become a remnant low this afternoon, and the circulation is 
foreast to become an open trough within 48 hours. 

Paine is moving northwestward or 305/4 kt. The cyclone's motion 
should bend toward the west-northwest and west over the next 24 to 
36 hours as it becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the 
low-level flow. No significant changes were required to the 
previous track forecast. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 18.4N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1200Z 18.8N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Brown
 
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