ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022
The satellite presentation of Paine has degraded during the past
several hours. Apart from one small burst of convection being
sheared away from the center, the cyclone is generally just a
low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen and
the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt.
Global models indicate that moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear
and increasingly dry mid-level air will prevent Paine from
intensifying in the future. Simulated satellite imagery from these
models also suggests that little or no new deep, organized
convection is likely to form. The official forecast now shows Paine
becoming a remnant low within 12 hours.
Paine is passing just east of Clarion Island while moving northwest
at about 4 kt. This motion is expected to gradually turn to the
west-northwest and west today as the shallow vortex is steered by
the low-level winds. The NHC track prediction is shifted slightly
south of the previous forecast track and near the center of the
model guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 18.3N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 18.8N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN