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Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022
During the past few hours, convection associated with Paine has
decreased significantly, as most of the cold cloud tops near the
center are currently comprised of cirrus debris. This decrease has
not yet affected the various satellite intensity estimates, which
remain in the 35-40 kt range. The initial intensity is thus held
at 40 kt, but this could be generous.
The window of opportunity for Paine to strengthen is just about
closed. The cyclone is starting to encounter increasing westerly
vertical wind shear, and it is embedded in a dry air mass that may
make it difficult for the convection to re-develop. Indeed,
simulated satellite imagery from the latest GFS run suggests the
possibility that the convection may not return even at the normal
diurnal maximum in about 12 h. The intensity forecast calls for
gradual weakening, with the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low
between 24-36 h and dissipating completely between 60-72 h. Both
of these events could happen earlier if the convection does not
re-develop.
The initial motion remains northwestward or 325/5 kt. This motion
should persist for the next 12 h or so. After that, a slow motion
toward the west-northwest and west is anticipated as the weakening
Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level
flow. The new official forecast is basically an update of the
previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 19.1N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 19.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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