ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 There has been a general increase in banding around the western and southern portions of Paine's circulation today, with the center embedded within the colder cloud tops. However, the bands are somewhat fragmented, and subjective Dvorak classifications are a consensus T2.5 (35 kt). Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are slightly higher and support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which is used for this advisory. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system this afternoon, and once again there is no scatterometer data to better determine the system's intensity or size. Paine's window for further strengthening is expected to close later tonight. After that time, increasing westerly shear and a drier mid-level environment are likely to begin to lower Paine's intensity. Weakening is anticipated on Wednesday, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that convection will cease, and Paine is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours. This system is forecast to dissipate by day 3. Paine is moving northwestward at about 5 kt. The cyclone should continue to move on that general heading and speed through early Wednesday as it is steered around the western side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a bend to the west-northwest and west is anticipated as Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The official track forecast is once again near the multi-model consensus aids and it is not very different than this morning's forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.8N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.7N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 19.2N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 19.2N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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