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Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022
 
There has been a general increase in banding around the western and 
southern portions of Paine's circulation today, with the center 
embedded within the colder cloud tops. However, the bands are 
somewhat fragmented, and subjective Dvorak classifications are a 
consensus T2.5 (35 kt). Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are 
slightly higher and support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which
is used for this advisory. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system 
this afternoon, and once again there is no scatterometer data to 
better determine the system's intensity or size. 

Paine's window for further strengthening is expected to close later 
tonight.  After that time, increasing westerly shear and a drier 
mid-level environment are likely to begin to lower Paine's 
intensity. Weakening is anticipated on Wednesday, and simulated 
satellite imagery from the global models indicate that convection 
will cease, and Paine is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low 
by 36 hours.  This system is forecast to dissipate by day 3. 

Paine is moving northwestward at about 5 kt.  The cyclone should 
continue to move on that general heading and speed through early 
Wednesday as it is steered around the western side of a mid-level 
ridge.  After that time, a bend to the west-northwest and west is 
anticipated as Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by 
the low-level flow. The official track forecast is once again near 
the multi-model consensus aids and it is not very different than 
this morning's forecast. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 17.8N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 18.7N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 19.2N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0600Z 19.2N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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