ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has been producing convection for the better part of the last 18 to 24 hours, though it has been somewhat sheared off to the west of the low-level circulation. CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5, respectively, and recently the convection has built slightly closer to the center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass from 03/0913 UTC showed improved banding structure compared to yesterday. A 03/1638 UTC ASCAT-B pass shows a well-defined closed circulation, with wind vectors that support maximum sustained winds near 35 kt. On this basis, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Paine. The ASCAT data indicates that Paine is a small cyclone, with tropical storm force winds extending outward only about 30 n mi from the center. Paine is located in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, relatively dry mid-level air is present over this portion of the Pacific. The dry air should limit significant strengthening over the first 24 to 36 hours, while the wind shear remains moderate. Beyond 36 hours, wind shear increases further and the mid-level air becomes even drier. This should lead to weakening, and by 60 hours, Paine is likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low. The initial motion is 345/5 kt. The cyclone should continue on a similar heading for the next couple of days. A mid-level ridge located to the north of Paine after that time should induce a gradual turn to the west. The cyclone will also lose its convection at around that time, with the shallow remnant low moving westward with the trade wind flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.9N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 16.4N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 17.3N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 18.1N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 18.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 18.8N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown NNNN
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