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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 15(29) 2(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 16(30) 2(32)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25)
CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 39(46) 13(59) 1(60)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) X(24)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 29(45) 6(51)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 1(20)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 3(17) X(17)
15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 26(45) 3(48) X(48)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 10(23) 2(25) X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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