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Tropical Storm Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
600 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022
...TINY ORLENE HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND A PORTION OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.8N 107.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to San Blas
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
tonight or Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 107.2 West. Orlene is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in
forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to move toward the north or
north-northeast on Saturday and Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected through Saturday
night, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or
Saturday.
Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias on
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible Saturday night and
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.
RAINFALL: Into Monday afternoon, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions
of the southwest Mexican coast. These rainfall amounts should lead
to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of
mountainous terrain.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico
in the watch areas in regions of onshore winds.
SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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