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BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
...ORLENE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.0N 106.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings could be required for portions of these areas on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.8 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected today.  On the forecast track, the
center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight
or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area later on Monday or Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Orlene is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening
is forecast through this morning, followed by weakening beginning
later today and continuing until landfall.
 
Orlene is a small tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area this morning.  Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight
or early Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area today.
 
RAINFALL: Into Tuesday, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches
of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
southwestern Mexico.  These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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