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BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022
 
...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ORLENE STILL STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas northward to Mazatlan, and
issued a Hurricane Watch south of San Blas to Playa Perula.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
tonight or on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene
should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday night or Monday
morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning
area later on Monday or Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast
through early Sunday, followed by weakening beginning later on
Sunday and continuing until landfall.
 
Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning early Monday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by Sunday
night or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Into Tuesday, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches
of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
southwestern Mexico. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in
regions of onshore winds.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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