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BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022
 
...ORLENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 107.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Las
Islas Marias.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later
today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 107.0 West. Orlene is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A north-northeastward motion
at a slightly faster speed is expected to begin by tonight and
continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center
of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias Sunday night or
Monday morning and reach the coast of mainland Mexico later on
Monday or Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Strengthening is expected through Sunday.
After that, steady weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute
to investigate Orlene.
 
Orlene remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds 
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and 
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by Sunday
night into Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm watch area
tonight and Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Into Monday evening, Orlene is expected to produce 3 to 5
inches of rainfall, with local amounts of 10 inches, for portions of
Southwest Mexico.  These rainfall amounts should lead to flash
flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
 
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of
southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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