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HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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