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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ORLENE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING FOR
A PORTION OF THAT COASTLINE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.4N 107.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.3N 107.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 23.8N 106.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 
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