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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.2W
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 103.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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