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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 103.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 103.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 105.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 103.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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