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Tropical Depression Orlene Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022
Strong west-southwesterly shear and the mountainous terrain of
southwestern Mexico have taken a toll on Orlene. The tropical
cyclone has rapidly weakened, and is now estimated to be a 30-kt
tropical depression. A long-loop of one-minute GOES-17 visible
satellite imagery suggests that the center likely came ashore
slightly west of the earlier track, but close to the estimated time.
Additional weakening is expected, and the low-level center is
likely to dissipate this evening. A 12-h point is provided for
continuity but Orlene is not likely to exist as a cyclone by that
time.
Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 025/9 kt. The cyclone or
its remnants should continue to move north-northeastward around the
northwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation
occurs.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
Southwest Mexico through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 23.6N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0600Z 24.5N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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