ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022
Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSM/IS overpass indicate
that Orlene is becoming better organized, with the central
convection becoming more symmetric and starting to develop into an
eyewall. There have also been hints of an eye on infrared imagery.
Satellite intensity estimates at 12Z were in the 55-65 kt range, and
since that time estimates from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique
have increased to over 70 kt. Based on this data, Orlene is
upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of 65 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Orlene later today.
Orlene should be in a moist and light-shear environment for about
the next 24 h, and with the increased core organization steady to
rapid intensification is expected. The new intensity forecast
calls for a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 24 h. After that,
strong southwesterly shear should cause steady to rapid weakening
until landfall in Mexico. This should be followed by dissipation
over the mountains of northwestern Mexico between 72-96 h. While
it cannot be ruled out that Orlene could reach mainland Mexico as a
hurricane, the chances of that have decreased since yesterday based
on the current trends and guidance. The new intensity forecast has
some adjustments from the previous forecast and lies near or at the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.
Orlene continues moving slowly northward at 360/4 kt, to the west of
a mid-level ridge. After about 12 h, the cyclone should turn
north-northeastward in the flow between this ridge and an
upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over northwestern
Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. This
north-northeastward motion is forecast to continue until Orlene
dissipates over mainland Mexico. The track guidance is fairly
tightly clustered around this track, although the GFS is a bit to
the right of the other models. The new forecast track is close to
the various consensus models and is just a little to the left of the
Based on the the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii, a
Hurricane Warning has been issued for Las Islas Marias.
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the west-central
mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday.
2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain in
Southwest Mexico through Monday evening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 17.6N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 18.3N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 19.2N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 21.6N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 22.8N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1200Z 24.0N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND