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Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022
Orlene continues to gain strength. An earlier microwave overpass
revealed a well-defined curved band wrapping into a developing inner
core. Persistent deep convection is over the estimated low-level
center location, with cloud tops near -80 degrees Celsius. The
UW-CIMSS ADT objective Dvorak estimate as well as the Data-T number
from SAB have increased from the previous advisory, and therefore
the initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt.
The storm has turned northwestward and is heading 320/4 kt as it
begins to slowly round the western periphery of a mid-level ridge
located over Mexico. A turn to the north should occur by tonight
followed by a turn to the north-northeast along with a slight
increase in forward speed, as Orlene rounds the ridge and gets
caught in the flow between the ridge and an upper trough to its
west. The consensus track guidance has shifted slightly eastward
this cycle, partially due to the ECMWF track coming into better
agreement with the rest of the global models. The NHC track
forecast was also adjusted a little to the right, but remains just
west of the consensus. Based on the trends in the track forecast,
there is an increasing probability that Orlene may affect the coast
of the Mexican state of Jalisco as it passes just to the west of
that location in 2-3 days. Therefore, watches may be required for a
portion of that coastline later this morning.
Orlene is within an environment favorable for strengthening, with
plenty of atmospheric moisture, low vertical wind shear, and water
temperatures of 29 degrees C. The cyclone's forecast path should
keep it within these conditions for the next 36-48 h. With there
now being evidence of an inner core, Orlene's rate of strengthening
should increase soon. After 48 h, strong southwesterly shear is
forecast to begin impacting the cyclone and should entrain dry
mid-tropospheric air into its circulation. This should cause
Orlene to weaken before it reaches the coast of Mexico early next
week. Based on the small size of the cyclone, fairly rapid changes
in its intensity are possible, both while strengthening and
weakening. The NHC forecast is a little higher that the previous
one and is very near the various multi-model consensus solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 15.9N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 16.6N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 17.4N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.2N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 19.3N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 21.8N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 23.8N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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