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Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022
Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with
a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has
been weakening during the past few hours. The initial wind speed
is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously. The system should gradually
weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier
air into the circulation. This environment should eliminate any
significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is
now indicated in 12 hours.
The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated
at 240/8 kt. Newton should move southwestward during the next few
days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. No significant
changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or
intensity.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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