ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
A little deep convection has reformed near the center of Newton
since the last advisory. While it isn't particularly well organized,
it was enough to get a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB, which
was the primary basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The lack of
persistent or organized deep convection is probably due to a
combination of factors including a dry surrounding environment
(700-500 mb 50 to 55 percent RH according to SHIPS diagnostics) and
moderate wind shear.
Even though Newton is forecast to move over warmer SSTs during the
next few days, various global models suggest it could become
post-tropical sooner than that, and based on current trends that
could be as soon as tomorrow. The HWRF has a notably different
forecast, indicating Newton could stick around as a weak tropical
depression for at least another few days. The NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory, showing Newton becoming
post-tropical in about a day and dissipating by day 3.
Newton has turned westward. Low-level winds should steer the
depression westward overnight, and then southwestward by late Sunday
or early Monday. Only minor adjustments were made to the official
track forecast which is based on the track consensus aids HCCA and
TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 19.5N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NNNN