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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
The low-level center of Newton has once again become obscured
by convection flaring near the center. A recent GPM microwave pass,
the recent exposure of the low-level center, and scatterometer
passes a few hours ago give high confidence in the location of the
center. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 40 kt
based on a blend of the Dvorak analyses, including fixes from PHFO,
SATCON and AODT.
Newton is expected to continue gradually weakening over the next
several days. The system will remain over SSTs between 27-28C
through 72 hours. The SHIPS and global models show the system will
encounter increasing southerly shear in about 12 to 24 hours.
The system will also be encountering drier air over the next
several days. All combined, these factors will lead to the slow
weakening of the system, transitioning to a remnant low and then
dissipating in 72 hours.
The system has moved a little more to the northwest with this
advisory, driven in part by the bursts of convection that have been
observed over the last several hours. This movement remains close
to the forecasted track. The system is expected to continue moving
to the northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours, before making a turn
to the southwest as it weakens. The forecast track remains on the
southern side of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 18.6N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard
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