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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
The low-level center of Newton has become exposed, with the
convection sheared to the east and southeast of the center.
A census of the Dvorak estimates would support an initial
intensity around 45 kt. With visible imagery since fix time
continuing the shearing trend, the initial intensity for
this advisory is set to 40 kt. A 1635Z scatterometer pass
captured Newton, further supporting the low level center
location of the low level center. This places the center
about 15 nm to the south of the previous track.
Further weakening is expected as the storm moves to the west
into a drier and more stable airmass. SSTs are near 81F with
little change expected along the forecast track, so we not expecting
the SSTs to be much of a factor in the weakening of the system.
Newton is expected to transition to a remnant low and then
dissipate within 72 hours.
Newton continues to move to the west-northwest, but the short
term forward motion has slowed to around 4 kt as it moves along
the southwest edge of a mid-level ridge. The track has been
shifted just a touch to the south, but remains on the southern
side of the guidance envelope which remain tightly spread,
particularly in the short term.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.2N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard
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