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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022
The satellite presentation of Newton has improved this evening, with
deep convection once again reforming over the low-level circulation
center. The latest satellite intensity estimates have changed little
during the past 6 hours, remaining between 35 and 55 knots, and as a
result the initial intensity will be held at 50 knots.
Newton continues to move slightly north of due west at 280/6 kt.
The cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a mid-level
ridge over the south-central U.S. The system is expected to continue
to track slightly north of due west during the next couple of days
as it is steered by this mid-level ridge. Drier environmental air
should ultimately lead to a collapse in deep convection over the
weekend, which should allow Newton to be steered by the low-level
flow by Sunday, with dissipation shortly thereafter. The NHC track
forecast was nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, and
lies very close to the multi-model track consensus guidance.
The environmental conditions remain conducive for maintaining deep
convection during the next day or two, before drier mid-level and
slightly stronger southerly shear begin to take more of a toll on
Newton. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength
tonight, with gradual weakening then expected until dissipation.
Newton is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Saturday
night, if not sooner.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 17.9N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 18.2N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 19.8N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 19.7N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 19.3N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg/Jelsema
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