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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022
Convection in the core of Newton has collapsed rather suddenly in
the past few hours, likely due to the ingestion of dry air. The
central dense overcast is largely gone and only small bursts of
convection are still firing near the estimated center where cloud
top temperatures are warmer than -70 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak
classification still range between 35 to 55 kt, though the objective
estimates have been declining since the previous advisory. The
initial intensity has therefore been lowered to 50 kt.
Newton continues to move west-northwestward at 285/6 kt. The
cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a
well-established ridge centered over Texas. This ridge will be the
main feature steering the storm until the shallow vortex turns
westward in about 3 days. The model guidance envelope has shifted
northward beyond the 36 hour forecast period. In response, the
official track forecast has been shift slightly to the right of
previous advisory after a day or so.
The small size of Newton has made it susceptible to modest changes
in the near-storm environment. Though the statistical guidance is
analyzing low vertical wind shear, the satellite presentation of the
storm would suggest a dry air intrusion has interrupted
strengthening and induced weakening. Forecast Intensity Guidance
now indicates Newton will weaken and ultimately become a remnant low
in a couple of days or so. The NHC intensity prediction no longer
shows strengthening and instead calls for gradual weakening until
dissipation at 96 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 19.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 19.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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