ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022
...MADELINE MOVING NORTHWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case during the next 24
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 106.9 West. Madeline is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected later today, followed by
a turn toward the west-northwest and west on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Madeline is expected to turn
away from the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Weakening is expected to begin on Monday, and Madeline is likely to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Madeline can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at
RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maximum totals of 6
inches today into Monday across mainly coastal portions of the
following Mexican States: Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.
These heavy rains may produce localized flash and urban flooding,
along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area today and tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico for the next few days. High surf
associated with Madeline will spread northward and begin to affect
the coast of the Baja California peninsula today into Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.