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Tropical Depression Madeline Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022
Madeline is close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone, having
produced little deep convection overnight. Satellite intensity
estimates continue to decrease and, based on these and the earlier
scatterometer data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30
kt. The storm is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in
12 hours or less due to persistent shear, dry air and cool waters.
It is possible Madeline will produce occasional short-lived bursts
of convection after it moves away from the cooler ocean waters
stirred up by Kay. However, model guidance suggests this
convective activity will not be enough to redevelop Madeline as a
tropical system. The remnant low is expected to open up into a
trough by the end of the forecast period.
Madeline is moving west at 7 kt. This general motion is expected
to continue with a gradual turn to the west-southwest in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the
previous advisory and close to the multi-model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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