ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Madeline is on a gradual decline. The deep convection that is confined to the west of the cyclone's low-level center is slowly decaying in the presence of 20 kt of east-northeasterly shear and marginal SSTs of 26 degrees C. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased from 6 h ago, and a blend of their CI values suggest that the initial intensity has decreased to 45 kt. Madeline continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt. An ongoing west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so while the storm remains steered by a deep-layer ridge centered over southern Texas. After that time, a turn to the west is expected when the system becomes shallow and moves within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the various multi-model consensus tracks. The east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist while Madeline moves into a region of drier air and over cooler SSTs. Therefore steady weakening is expected, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into post-tropical remnant low, devoid of persistent organized deep convection, by early Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged slightly lower through 48 h due to the decrease in the initial intensity, but remains slightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.0N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.1N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 21.7N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1200Z 21.7N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z 21.6N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 21.3N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 21.1N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN
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