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Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022
Madeline is on a gradual decline. The deep convection that is
confined to the west of the cyclone's low-level center is slowly
decaying in the presence of 20 kt of east-northeasterly shear and
marginal SSTs of 26 degrees C. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased from 6 h ago, and a
blend of their CI values suggest that the initial intensity has
decreased to 45 kt.
Madeline continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt. An
ongoing west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day
or so while the storm remains steered by a deep-layer ridge
centered over southern Texas. After that time, a turn to the west
is expected when the system becomes shallow and moves within the
low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one and is near the various multi-model consensus
tracks.
The east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist while Madeline
moves into a region of drier air and over cooler SSTs. Therefore
steady weakening is expected, and the cyclone is expected to
degenerate into post-tropical remnant low, devoid of persistent
organized deep convection, by early Wednesday. The latest NHC
intensity forecast was nudged slightly lower through 48 h due to the
decrease in the initial intensity, but remains slightly higher than
the HCCA and IVCN consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 21.0N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.1N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 21.7N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 21.7N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 21.6N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 21.3N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z 21.1N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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