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Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022
Madeline's satellite presentation has improved some this morning.
Although the east-northeasterly shear continues to impede deep
convective development in the northeast quadrant. A new burst of
convection with cold cloud tops of -80C have developed just to the
southeast of the surface center. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass
also showed improved curved banding in the western semicircle.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers
from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, along with an earlier
SATCON analysis supports a slight increase to 55 kt for this
Increasing deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic surface
temperatures ahead of Madeline's track should induce a weakening
trend later tonight. The global model simulated IR imagery
shows that the cyclone should shed its deep convection
by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low-pressure
system. The official intensity forecast is similar to last night's
advisory and continues to side with the IVCN consensus model.
Madeline's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or
315/7 kt. A subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico is
expected to build over the Baja California peninsula and to the
north of Madeline by tonight. In response to this change in the
synoptic steering pattern, the cyclone should turn toward the
west-northwest by tonight and slowly turn westward on Wednesday.
Madeline should continue in this heading as a remnant low through
the remainder of the period. The NHC track forecast has been
nudged a little to the south of the previous one within 36 hours to
coincide with the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 20.6N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.4N 111.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.7N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.9N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 21.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 21.9N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 21.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 21.8N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW