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Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022
Madeline still has an asymmetric convective pattern, with a large
burst of deep convection mainly confined to the southwestern
quadrant due to deep-layer easterly shear. Visible satellite
images also suggest that there are several low-level swirls
rotating around a common center. Intensity estimates have not
changed since this morning, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt.
Moderate to strong easterly shear is expected to continue for the
next couple of days, and Madeline is also forecast to reach the
cold ocean wake of former Hurricane Kay by late Monday. There is
some chance for slight strengthening before Madeline reaches the
cold wake, but overall little change in intensity is forecast
during the next 24 hours. Weakening is anticipated after that
time, and model-simulated satellite imagery indicate that Madeline
should lose all of its deep convection, and hence become
post-tropical, by 48 hours.
The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 335/7 kt. Track
model guidance is in good agreement that Madeline will turn
west-northwestward on Monday, and then westward by Tuesday night,
when the weakening cyclone will come under the influence of
lower-level steering winds. The new NHC track forecast, which is
just a bit to the southwest of the morning prediction, anticipates
that Madeline will turn and move away from the coast of Mexico,
including the southern Baja California peninsula, during the next 48
hours.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal
southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher
coastal terrain.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern
coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes through this
evening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 18.8N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.4N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 21.3N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0600Z 21.5N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 21.6N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 21.4N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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