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Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
Convection associated with Lester has become more concentrated to
the southwest of the center in a sheared convective burst.
However, this has not yet resulted in significant strengthening, as
the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
remain near 35 kt. Thus, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.
The storm continues to move northwestward or 315/10 kt. The
cyclone should continue to move in this general direction as it is
steered in the southeasterly flow between a cyclonic gyre to its
west and a mid-level ridge ridge over Texas and northern Mexico. On
the forecast track, the center of Lester should cross the coast of
Mexico Saturday afternoon or evening, then continue to move inland
until the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is
little changed from the previous track.
Lester is being affected by about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical
wind shear, and moderate shear should continue until landfall.
However, the combination of very warm sea surface temperatures and
a moist environment should allow some strengthening, and the
intensity forecast shows a peak intensity of 45 kt near landfall.
After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the mountains of
Mexico, and the system is expected to dissipate between 36-48 h.
1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern
Mexico during the next few hours, increasing in coverage and
intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on
Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along the coast
of southern Mexico tonight and Saturday within the Tropical Storm
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 14.8N 97.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 15.9N 99.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.4N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 19.1N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND