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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022
 
...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 117.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in
mainland Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Kay is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later
today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of
the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then
begin to move further offshore by Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California.  
During the past few hours, wind gusts of hurricane force have been 
reported in the mountains of southern California east and northeast 
of San Diego.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area.
 
Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.
 
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds
along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of
California.  The flooding could be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.
 
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday...
 
Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated
maxima of 15 inches
 
Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maxima of 8 inches
 
Southernmost California:  2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to
8 inches
 
Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3
inches
 
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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