ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
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Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022
...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula from
Todos Santos to Cabo San Lucas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Todos Santos.
* San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of la Paz northward along the entire east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in thisd case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 114.1 West. Kay is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and
continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected move over or near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest
coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph
(130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected
during the next couple of days. However, Kay is expected to remain
a large hurricane when it passes over or near the west-central
coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next several
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).
The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
during the next few hours, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.