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Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Ensenada
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ensenada to U.S./Mexico border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.9
North, longitude 113.2 West. Kay is moving toward the
north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula this morning, and be near or over the west-central coast
of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight, and near
the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). An automated observing station at Puerto Cortes, on
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, reported a
sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a peak gust to 55 mph (89
km/h) during the past couple of hours.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by reconnaissance
aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning later today, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the
Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward
through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Friday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.