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Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022
...CENTER OF KAY MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from
San Evaristo southward, and for the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula south of Puerto Cortes.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Puerto Cortes
* San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border
* North of San Evaristo northward along the entire east coast of
the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 114.3 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and
continue into Saturday. A turn toward the west is expected by
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass
over portions of the Baja California peninsula near Punta Eugenia
for the next several hours, then move over the Pacific near and
offshore of the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula
later tonight, Friday, and Friday night.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Kay is expected to weaken to a tropical
storm in the next few hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
for the next few hours, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast
to spread northward through Friday.
Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near the landfall location
along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 8
Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.