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BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022
 
...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TOMORROW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 113.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula
north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Ensenada
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ensenada to U.S./Mexico border
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 113.0 West.  Kay is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into Friday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja
California peninsula this evening and tonight, and be near or over 
the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and
Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.    Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes
near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).  An automated observing station at Puerto Cortes,
on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a peak gust to 54 mph (87 
km/h) during the past couple of hours.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are spreading over
the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread
northward through Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Friday.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday:
 
Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches
 
Northwest Mainland Mexico:  2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches
 
Southernmost California:  2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
 
Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches
 
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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