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BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022
 
...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND BRING STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 111.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Rosalia
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles
* North of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay as additional tropical
storm watches could be required later tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 111.7 West. Kay is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the 
north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, and this motion should 
continue into Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Kay is 
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California 
peninsula on Wednesday, and be near the west-central coast of the 
Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Kay
could become a major hurricane during that time.  Weakening is
forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tomorrow morning and are
forecast to spread northward tomorrow night and Thursday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Thursday.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10
inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches across the central portions
of the Baja California peninsula through Friday.  Rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches with maxima of 8 inches are possible across the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.  Rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northwestern portions of
mainland Mexico.   These rainfall amounts could lead to flash
flooding, including landslides.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja
California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next
few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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