ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022
 
...KAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS, GUSTY WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 108.1W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Punta Abreojos
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely
monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical storm watches
could be required later tonight or on Tuesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located 
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 108.1 West. Kay is moving toward 
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the 
northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a north-northwestward 
motion Tuesday night through Thursday. On the forecast track, the 
center of Kay is expected to remain southwest and west of 
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, then move to the west of the 
southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday.  
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
Kay is expected to be a strong hurricane when it passes near the 
Baja California peninsula during the middle of the week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
 
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely
near the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja
California peninsula by early Wednesday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are
likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread northward and into
the Gulf of California through midweek. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
RAINFALL:  Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN