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TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF PUERTO LIBERTAD...FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO LIBERTAD IN
MAINLAND MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 180SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 116.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 116.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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