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TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF SANTA ROSALIA ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SOUTH OF BAHIA KINO ON THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* SANTA ROSALIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO IN MAINLAND
MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 116.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 360SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 116.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 115.5W
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.5N 117.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.3N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.9N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.6N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 116.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
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FORECASTER PAPIN
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