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TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0300 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF LORETO ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
* NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND
MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 115.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 390SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 115.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 114.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.4N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 28.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 115.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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